Lifetime effects and cost-effectiveness of standard and higher-intensity statin therapy across population categories in the UK: a microsimulation modelling study.

Background: Cardiovascular disease incidence and mortality have declined across developed economies and granular up-to-date cost-effectiveness evidence is required for treatments targeting large populations. To assess the health benefits and cost-effectiveness of standard and higher intensity statin therapy in the contemporary UK population 40-70 years old. Methods: A cardiovascular disease microsimulation model, developed using the Cholesterol Treatment Trialists' Collaboration data (117,896 participants; 5 years follow-up), and calibrated in the UK Biobank cohort (501,854 participants; 9 years follow-up), projected risks of myocardial infarction, stroke, coronary revascularization, diabetes, cancer and vascular and nonvascular death for all UK Biobank participants without and with statin treatment. Meta-analyses of trials and cohort studies informed statins' relative effects on cardiovascular events, incident diabetes, myopathy and rhabdomyolysis. UK healthcare perspective was taken (2020/2021 UK£) with costs per 28 tablets of £1.10 for standard (35%-45% LDL cholesterol (LDL-C) reduction) and £1.68 for higher intensity (≥45% LDL-C reduction) generic statin. Findings: Across categories by sex, age, LDL-C, and cardiovascular disease history/10-year cardiovascular risk, lifetime standard statin increased survival by 0.28-1.85 years (0.20-1.09 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs)), and higher intensity statin by further 0.06-0.40 years (0.03-0.20 QALYs) per person. Standard statin was cost-effective across all categories with incremental cost per QALY from £280 to £8530, with higher intensity statin cost-effective at higher cardiovascular risks and higher LDL-C levels. Stopping statin early reduced benefits and was not cost-effective. Interpretation: Lifetime low-cost statin therapy is cost-effective across all 40-70 years old in UK. Strengthening and widening statin treatment could cost-effectively improve population health. Funding: UK NIHR Health Technology Assessment Programme (17/140/02).

A comprehensive analysis of APOE genotype effects on human brain structure in the UK Biobank.

Alzheimer's disease (AD) risk is increased in carriers of the apolipoprotein E (APOE) ε4 allele and decreased in ε2 allele carriers compared with the ε3ε3 genotype. The aim of this study was to determine whether: the APOE genotype affects brain grey (GM) or white matter (WM) structure; and if differences exist, the age when they become apparent and whether there are differential effects by sex. We used cross-sectional magnetic resonance imaging data from ~43,000 (28,494 after pre-processing) white British cognitively healthy participants (7,446 APOE ε4 carriers) aged 45-80 years from the UK Biobank cohort and investigated image-derived phenotypes (IDPs). We observed no statistically significant effects of APOE genotype on GM structure volumes or median T2* in subcortical structures, a measure related to iron content. The volume of white matter hyperintensities differed significantly between APOE genotype groups with higher volumes in APOE ε4ε4 (effect size 0.14 standard deviations [SD]) and ε3ε4 carriers (effect size 0.04 SD) but no differences in ε2 carriers compared with ε3ε3 carriers. WM integrity measures in the dorsal (mean diffusivity [MD]) and ventral cingulum (MD and intracellular volume fraction), posterior thalamic radiation (MD and isotropic volume fraction) and sagittal stratum (MD) indicated lower integrity in APOE ε4ε4 carriers (effect sizes around 0.2-0.3 SD) and ε3ε4 (effect sizes around 0.05 SD) carriers but no differences in ε2 carriers compared with the APOE ε3ε3 genotype. Effects did not differ between men and women. APOE ε4 homozygotes had lower WM integrity specifically at older ages with a steeper decline of WM integrity from the age of 60 that corresponds to around 5 years greater "brain age". APOE genotype affects various white matters measures, which might be indicative of preclinical AD processes. This hypothesis can be assessed in future when clinical outcomes become available.

Thromboxane biosynthesis and future events in diabetes: the ASCEND trial.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Thromboxane (TX) A2, released by activated platelets, plays an important role in atherothrombosis. Urinary 11-dehydro-TXB2 (U-TXM), a stable metabolite reflecting the whole-body TXA2 biosynthesis, is reduced by ∼70% by daily low-dose aspirin. The U-TXM represents a non-invasive biomarker of in vivo platelet activation and is enhanced in patients with diabetes. This study assessed whether U-TXM is associated with the risk of future serious vascular events or revascularizations (SVE-R), major bleeding, or cancer in patients with diabetes. METHODS: The U-TXM was measured pre-randomization to aspirin or placebo in 5948 people with type 1 or 2 diabetes and no cardiovascular disease, in the ASCEND trial. Associations between log U-TXM and SVE-R (n = 618), major bleed (n = 206), and cancer (n = 700) during 6.6 years of follow-up were investigated by Cox regression; comparisons of these associations with the effects of randomization to aspirin were made. RESULTS: Higher U-TXM was associated with older age, female sex, current smoking, type 2 diabetes, higher body size, urinary albumin/creatinine ratio of ≥3 mg/mmol, and higher estimated glomerular filtration rate. After adjustment for these, U-TXM was marginally statistically significantly associated with SVE-R and major bleed but not cancer [hazard ratios per 1 SD higher log U-TXM (95% confidence interval): 1.09 (1.00-1.18), 1.16 (1.01-1.34), and 1.06 (0.98-1.14)]. The hazard ratio was similar to that implied by the clinical effects of randomization to aspirin for SVE-R but not for major bleed. CONCLUSIONS: The U-TXM was log-linearly independently associated with SVE-R in diabetes. This is consistent with the involvement of platelet TXA2 in diabetic atherothrombosis.

Long-term cardiovascular risks and the impact of statin treatment on socioeconomic inequalities: a microsimulation model.

BACKGROUND: UK cardiovascular disease (CVD) incidence and mortality have declined in recent decades but socioeconomic inequalities persist. AIM: To present a new CVD model, and project health outcomes and the impact of guideline-recommended statin treatment across quintiles of socioeconomic deprivation in the UK. DESIGN AND SETTING: A lifetime microsimulation model was developed using 117 896 participants in 16 statin trials, 501 854 UK Biobank (UKB) participants, and quality-of-life data from national health surveys. METHOD: A CVD microsimulation model was developed using risk equations for myocardial infarction, stroke, coronary revascularisation, cancer, and vascular and non-vascular death, estimated using trial data. The authors calibrated and further developed this model in the UKB cohort, including further characteristics and a diabetes risk equation, and validated the model in UKB and Whitehall II cohorts. The model was used to predict CVD incidence, life expectancy, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and the impact of UK guideline-recommended statin treatment across socioeconomic deprivation quintiles. RESULTS: Age, sex, socioeconomic deprivation, smoking, hypertension, diabetes, and cardiovascular events were key CVD risk determinants. Model-predicted event rates corresponded well to observed rates across participant categories. The model projected strong gradients in remaining life expectancy, with 4-5-year (5-8 QALYs) gaps between the least and most socioeconomically deprived quintiles. Guideline-recommended statin treatment was projected to increase QALYs, with larger gains in quintiles of higher deprivation. CONCLUSION: The study demonstrated the potential of guideline-recommended statin treatment to reduce socioeconomic inequalities. This CVD model is a novel resource for individualised long-term projections of health outcomes of CVD treatments.

ASCEND-Eye: Effects of Aspirin on Diabetic Retinopathy.

PURPOSE: Preclinical studies support a protective role for aspirin in early diabetic retinopathy (DR), but the findings from randomized trials are limited. We present randomized evidence for the efficacy and safety of aspirin on DR outcomes. DESIGN: A substudy of the A Study of Cardiovascular Events in Diabetes (ASCEND) double-masked, randomized, placebo-controlled trial of 100 mg aspirin daily for the primary prevention of serious cardiovascular events in people with diabetes. PARTICIPANTS: Fifteen thousand four hundred eighty United Kingdom adults at least 40 years of age with diabetes. METHODS: Linkage to electronic National Health Service Diabetic Eye Screening Programme records in England and Wales and confirmation of participant-reported eye events via medical record review were carried out. Log-rank methods were used for intention-to-treat analyses of time until the first primary efficacy and safety outcomes. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary efficacy end point was the first record of referable disease after randomization, a composite of referable retinopathy or referable maculopathy based on the grading criteria defined by the United Kingdom National Screening Committee. The primary safety outcome was the first sight-threatening eye bleed, defined as clinically significant bleeding in the eye that resulted in unresolved visual loss or required an urgent intervention such as laser photocoagulation, vitreoretinal surgery, intraocular injection, or a combination thereof. RESULTS: Linkage data were obtained for 7360 participants (48% of those randomized in ASCEND). During the mean follow-up of 6.5 years, 539 participants (14.6%) experienced a referable disease event in the aspirin group, compared with 522 participants (14.2%) in the placebo group (rate ratio, 1.03; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.91-1.16; P = 0.64). No statistically significant between-group difference was found in the proportions of sight-threatening eye bleed events (57 participants [0.7%] and 64 participants [0.8%], respectively; rate ratio, 0.89; 95% CI, 0.62-1.27). DISCUSSION: These data exclude any clinically meaningful benefits of aspirin for DR, but give reassurance regarding the ophthalmologic safety of aspirin. FINANCIAL DISCLOSURE(S): Proprietary or commercial disclosure may be found in the Footnotes and Disclosures at the end of this article.

ASCEND-Eye: Effects of Omega-3 Fatty Acids on Diabetic Retinopathy.

PURPOSE: Preclinical studies support a protective role for omega-3 fatty acids (FAs) on diabetic retinopathy (DR), but these observations have not been confirmed in randomized trials. We present randomized evidence for the effects of omega-3 FAs on DR outcomes. DESIGN: A substudy of the A Study of Cardiovascular Events iN Diabetes (ASCEND) double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled trial of 1 g omega-3 fatty acids (containing 460 mg eicosapentaenoic acid and 380 mg docosahexaenoic acid) daily for the primary prevention of serious cardiovascular events, in 15 480 UK adults at least 40 years of age, with diabetes. PARTICIPANTS: Fifteen thousand four hundred eighty adults at least 40 years of age from the United Kingdom with diabetes from the ASCEND cohort. METHODS: Linkage to electronic National Health Service Diabetic Eye Screening Programme records in England and Wales and confirmation of participant-reported eye events via medical record review. Log-rank and stratified log-rank methods were used for intention-to-treat analyses of time until the main outcomes of interest. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary efficacy endpoint was time to the first postrandomization recording of referable disease, a composite of referable retinopathy (R2 or R3a/s) or referable maculopathy (M1) based on the grading criteria defined by the United Kingdom National Screening Committee. Secondary and tertiary outcomes included the referable disease outcome stratified by the severity of DR at baseline, any progression in retinopathy grade, and incident diabetic maculopathy. RESULTS: Linkage data were obtained for 7360 participants (48% of those who were randomized in ASCEND). During their mean follow-up of 6.5 years, 548 participants (14.8%) had a referable disease event in the omega-3 FAs group, compared with 513 participants (13.9%) in the placebo group (rate ratio, 1.07; 95% confidence interval, 0.95-1.20; P = 0.29). There were no statistically significant between-group differences in the proportion of events for either of the secondary or tertiary outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Representing the largest prospective test of its kind to date, these data exclude any clinically meaningful benefits of 1 g daily omega-3 FAs on DR. FINANCIAL DISCLOSURE(S): Proprietary or commercial disclosure may be found in the Footnotes and Disclosures at the end of this article.

ASCEND-Eye: Rationale, design and baseline characteristics for a sub-study of the ASCEND randomised trial, exploring the effects of aspirin and omega-3 fatty acids on diabetic retinopathy and age-related macular degeneration.

Background: Aspirin and omega-3 fatty acids (FAs) have potential disease-modifying roles in diabetic retinopathy (DR) and age-related macular degeneration (AMD), but randomized evidence of these effects is limited. We present the rationale and baseline characteristics of ASCEND-Eye, a sub-study of the double-blind, 2x2 factorial design, randomized placebo-controlled ASCEND (A Study of Cardiovascular Events iN Diabetes) trial of 100 mg aspirin daily and, separately, 1g omega-3 FAs daily for the primary prevention of serious cardiovascular events, in 15,480 British adults, aged 40 years or older with diabetes. Methods: Eye events will be derived from three sources: 1) participant follow-up questionnaires from ASCEND, 2) electronic NHS Diabetic Eye Screening Programme (DESP) data and 3) responses to the National Eye Institute's Visual Function Questionnaire-25 (NEI-VFQ-25) sent to a subset of participants after the main trial ended. Analytic cohorts and outcomes relevant to these data sources are described. The primary outcome is referable diabetic eye disease, a secondary outcome is incident AMD events. Results: Participant-reported events were ascertained for the full cohort of randomized individuals who were followed up over 7.4 years in ASCEND (n = 15,480). Linked DESP data were available for 48% of those (n = 7360), and 57% completed the NEI-VFQ-25 (n = 8839). The baseline characteristics of these three cohorts are presented. Discussion: Establishing the risks and benefits of drugs commonly taken by people with diabetes, the elderly, or both, and finding new treatments for DR and AMD is important. ASCEND-Eye provides the opportunity to evaluate the effect of aspirin and, separately, omega-3 FAs for both conditions. Study registration: Eudract No. 2004-000991-15; Multicentre Research Ethics Committee Ref No. 03/8/087; ClinicalTrials.gov No. NCT00135226; ISRCTN No. ISRCTN60635500.

Evaluation of interventions to prevent vasovagal reactions among whole blood donors: rationale and design of a large cluster randomised trial.

BACKGROUND: Vasovagal reactions (VVRs) are the most common acute complications of blood donation. Responsible for substantial morbidity, they also reduce the likelihood of repeated donations and are disruptive and costly for blood services. Although blood establishments worldwide have adopted different strategies to prevent VVRs (including water loading and applied muscle tension [AMT]), robust evidence is limited. The Strategies to Improve Donor Experiences (STRIDES) trial aims to reliably assess the impact of four different interventions to prevent VVRs among blood donors. METHODS: STRIDES is a cluster-randomised cross-over/stepped-wedge factorial trial of four interventions to reduce VVRs involving about 1.4 million whole blood donors enrolled from all 73 blood donation sites (mobile teams and donor centres) of National Health Service Blood and Transplant (NHSBT) in England. Each site ("cluster") has been randomly allocated to receive one or more interventions during a 36-month period, using principles of cross-over, stepped-wedge and factorial trial design to assign the sequence of interventions. Each of the four interventions is compared to NHSBT's current practices: (i) 500-ml isotonic drink before donation (vs current 500-ml plain water); (ii) 3-min rest on donation chair after donation (vs current 2 min); (iii) new modified AMT (vs current practice of AMT); and (iv) psychosocial intervention using preparatory materials (vs current practice of nothing). The primary outcome is the number of in-session VVRs with loss of consciousness (i.e. episodes involving loss of consciousness of any duration, with or without additional complications). Secondary outcomes include all in-session VVRs (i.e. with and without loss of consciousness), all delayed VVRs (i.e. those occurring after leaving the venue) and any in-session non-VVR adverse events or reactions. DISCUSSION: The STRIDES trial should yield novel information about interventions, singly and in combination, for the prevention of VVRs, with the aim of generating policy-shaping evidence to help inform blood services to improve donor health, donor experience, and service efficiency. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN: 10412338. Registration date: October 24, 2019.

Reliability of major bleeding events in UK routine data versus clinical trial adjudicated follow-up data.

OBJECTIVE: To assess how reliable UK routine data are for ascertaining major bleeding events compared with adjudicated follow-up. METHODS: The ASCEND (A Study of Cardiovascular Events iN Diabetes) primary prevention trial randomised 15 480 UK people with diabetes to aspirin versus matching placebo. The primary safety outcome was major bleeding (including intracranial haemorrhage, sight-threatening eye bleeding, serious gastrointestinal bleeding and other major bleeding (epistaxis, haemoptysis, haematuria, vaginal and other bleeding)) ascertained by direct-participant mail-based follow-up, with >90% of outcomes undergoing adjudication. Nearly all participants were linked to routinely collected hospitalisation and death data (ie, routine data). An algorithm categorised bleeding events from routine data as major/minor. Kappa statistics were used to assess agreement between data sources, and randomised comparisons were re-run using routine data. RESULTS: When adjudicated follow-up and routine data were compared, there was agreement for 318 major bleeding events, with routine data identifying 281 additional-potential events, and not identifying 241 participant-reported events (kappa 0.53, 95% CI 0.49 to 0.57). Repeating ASCEND's randomised comparisons using routine data only found estimated relative and absolute effects of allocation to aspirin versus placebo on major bleeding similar to adjudicated follow-up (adjudicated follow-up: aspirin 314 (4.1%) vs placebo 245 (3.2%); rate ratio (RR) 1.29, 95% CI 1.09 to 1.52; absolute excess +6.3/5000 person-years (mean SE±2.1); vs routine data: 327 (4.2%) vs 272 (3.5%); RR 1.21, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.41; absolute excess +5.0/5000 (±2.2)). CONCLUSIONS: Analyses of the ASCEND randomised trial found that major bleeding events ascertained via UK routine data sources provided relative and absolute treatment effects similar to adjudicated follow-up. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN60635500; NCT00135226.

Calcium Supplements and Risk of CVD: A Meta-Analysis of Randomized Trials.

Background: Vitamin D supplements may only be beneficial for the prevention of osteoporotic fractures when administered with calcium and in individuals with low blood levels of 25(OH)D, but possible hazards of calcium supplements on CVD cannot be excluded. Objectives: We conducted a meta-analysis of all placebo-controlled randomized trials assessing the effects of calcium supplements alone or with vitamin D on CHD, stroke, and all-cause mortality. Methods: A meta-analysis of 11 trials included 7 comparisons of calcium alone compared with control (n = 8634) and 6 comparisons of calcium plus vitamin D compared with control (n = 46,804). Aggregated study-level data were obtained from individual trials and combined using a fixed-effects meta-analysis. The main outcomes included MI, CHD death, any CHD, stroke, and all-cause mortality. Results: Among trials of calcium alone (mean daily dose 1 g), calcium was not significantly associated with any excess risk of MI (RR, 1.15; 95% CI: 0.88, 1.51; n = 219 events), CHD death (RR, 1.24; 95% CI: 0.89, 1.73; n = 142), any CHD (RR, 1.01; 95% CI: 0.75, 1.37; n = 177), or stroke (RR, 1.15; 95% CI, 0.90, 1.46, n = 275). Among 6 trials of combined treatment, supplementation with calcium plus vitamin D was not significantly associated with any excess risk of MI (RR, 1.09; 95% CI: 0.95, 1.25; n = 854), CHD death (RR, 1.04; 95% CI: 0.85, 1.27; n = 391), any CHD (RR, 1.05; 95% CI: 0.93, 1.19; n = 1061), or stroke (RR, 1.02; 95% CI: 0.89, 1.17; n = 885). Likewise, calcium alone, or with vitamin D had no significant associations with all-cause mortality. Conclusions: This meta-analysis demonstrated that calcium supplements were not associated with any significant hazard for CHD, stroke, or all-cause mortality and excluded excess risks above 0.3%-0.5% per year for CHD or stroke. Further trials of calcium and vitamin D are required in individuals with low blood levels of 25(OH)D for the prevention of fracture and other disease outcomes.

Effect of low-dose aspirin on urinary 11-dehydro-thromboxane B2 in the ASCEND (A Study of Cardiovascular Events iN Diabetes) randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Aspirin is widely used for cardioprotection with its antiplatelet effects due to the blocking of thromboxane A2 production. However, it has been suggested that platelet abnormalities in those with diabetes prevent adequate suppression with once daily aspirin. METHODS: In the ASCEND randomized double-blind trial of aspirin 100 mg once daily versus placebo in participants with diabetes but no history of cardiovascular disease, suppression was assessed by measuring 11-dehydro-thromboxane B2 excretion in urine (U-TXM) in a randomly selected sample of 152 participants (76 aspirin arm, 74 placebo arm), plus 198 (93 aspirin arm, 105 placebo arm) adherent to study drugs and selected to maximize the numbers ingesting their last tablet 12-24 h before urine sampling. U-TXM was assayed using a competitive ELISA assay in samples mailed a mean of 2 years after randomization, with time since taking last aspirin/placebo tablet recorded at the time of sample provision. Effective suppression (U-TXM < 1500 pg/mg creatinine) and percentage reductions in U-TXM by aspirin allocation were compared. RESULTS: In the random sample, U-TXM was 71% (95% CI 64-76%) lower among aspirin vs placebo-allocated participants. Among adherent participants in the aspirin arm, U-TXM was 72% (95% CI 69-75%) lower than in the placebo arm and 77% achieved effective suppression overall. Suppression was similar among those who ingested their last tablet more than 12 h before urine sampling with levels in the aspirin arm 72% (95% CI 67-77%) lower than in the placebo arm and 70% achieving effective suppression. CONCLUSIONS: Daily aspirin significantly reduces U-TXM in participants with diabetes, including at 12-24 h after ingestion. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN ISRCTN60635500. Registered on 1 Sept 2005; ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00135226. Registered on 24 Aug 2005.

Prediction Models for Individual-Level Healthcare Costs Associated with Cardiovascular Events in the UK.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to develop prediction models for the individual-level impacts of cardiovascular events on UK healthcare costs. METHODS: In the UK Biobank, people 40-70 years old, recruited in 2006-2010, were followed in linked primary (N = 192,983 individuals) and hospital care (N = 501,807 individuals) datasets. Regression models of annual primary and annual hospital care costs (2020 UK£) associated with individual characteristics and experiences of myocardial infarction (MI), stroke, coronary revascularization, incident diabetes mellitus and cancer, and vascular and nonvascular death are reported. RESULTS: For both people without and with previous cardiovascular disease (CVD), primary care costs were modelled using one-part generalised linear models (GLMs) with identity link and Poisson distribution, and hospital costs with two-part models (part 1: logistic regression models the probability of incurring costs; part 2: GLM with identity link and Poisson distribution models the costs conditional on incurring any). In people without previous CVD, mean annual primary and hospital care costs were £360 and £514, respectively. The excess primary care costs were £190 and £360 following MI and stroke, respectively, whereas excess hospital costs decreased from £4340 and £5590, respectively, in the year of these events, to £190 and £410 two years later. People with previous CVD had more than twice higher annual costs, and incurred higher excess costs for cardiovascular events. Other characteristics associated with higher costs included older age, female sex, south Asian ethnicity, higher socioeconomic deprivation, smoking, lower level of physical activities, unhealthy body mass index, and comorbidities. CONCLUSIONS: These individual-level healthcare cost prediction models could inform assessments of the value of health technologies and policies to reduce cardiovascular and other disease risks and healthcare costs. An accompanying Excel calculator is available to facilitate the use of the models.

Weight loss in a cardiovascular trial population identifies people at future risk of dementia.

Introduction: Populations at increased risk of dementia need to be identified for well-powered trials of preventive interventions. Weight loss, which often occurs in pre-clinical dementia, could identify a population at sufficiently high dementia risk. Methods: In 12,975 survivors in the Heart Protection Study statin trial of people with, or at high risk of, cardiovascular disease, the association of weight change over 5 years during the trial with post-trial dementia recorded in electronic hospital admission and death records (n = 784) was assessed, after adjustment for age, sex, treatment allocation, and deprivation measures. Results: Among the 60% without substantial weight gain (≤2 kg weight gain), each 1 kg weight loss was associated with a risk ratio for dementia of 1.04 (95% confidence interval, 1.02-1.07). Weight loss ≥4 kg and cognitive function below the mean identified participants aged ≥67 years with a 13% 10-year dementia risk. Discussion: The combination of weight loss and high vascular risk identified individuals at high risk of dementia who could be recruited to dementia prevention trials.

Hospital costs associated with adverse events in people with diabetes in the UK.

AIM: To estimate the annual hospital costs associated with a range of adverse events for people with diabetes in the UK. METHODS: Annual hospital costs (2019/2020) were derived from 15 436 ASCEND participants from 2005 to 2017 (120 420 person-years). The annual hospital costs associated with cardiovascular events (myocardial infarction, coronary revascularization, transient ischaemic attack [TIA], ischaemic stroke, heart failure), bleeding (gastrointestinal [GI] bleed, intracranial haemorrhage, other major bleed), cancer (GI tract cancer, non-GI tract cancer), end-stage renal disease (ESRD), lower limb amputation and death (vascular, non-vascular) were estimated using a generalized linear model following adjustment for participants' sociodemographic and clinical factors. RESULTS: In the year of event, ESRD was associated with the largest increase in annual hospital cost (£20 954), followed by lower limb amputation (£17 887), intracranial haemorrhage (£12 080), GI tract cancer (£10 160), coronary revascularization (£8531 if urgent; £8302 if non-urgent), heart failure (£8319), non-GI tract cancer (£7409), ischaemic stroke (£7170), GI bleed (£5557), myocardial infarction (£4913), other major bleed (£3825) and TIA (£1523). In subsequent years, most adverse events were associated with lasting but smaller increases in hospital costs, except for ESRD, where the additional cost remained high (£20 090). CONCLUSIONS: Our study provides robust estimates of annual hospital costs associated with a range of adverse events in people with diabetes that can inform future cost-effectiveness analyses of diabetes interventions. It also highlights the potential cost savings that could be derived from prevention of these costly complications.

Effectiveness of a clinical decision support system for hypertension management in primary care: study protocol for a pragmatic cluster-randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Clinical decision support systems (CDSS) are low-cost, scalable tools with the potential to improve guideline-based antihypertensive treatment in primary care, but their effectiveness needs to be tested, especially in low- and middle-income countries such as China. METHODS: The Learning Implementation of Guideline-based decision support system for Hypertension Treatment (LIGHT) trial is a pragmatic, four-stage, cluster-randomized trial conducted in 94 primary care sites in China. For each city-based stage, sites are randomly assigned to either implementation of the CDSS for hypertension management (which guides doctors' treatment recommendations based on measured blood pressure and patient characteristics), or usual care. Patients are enrolled during the first 3 months after site randomization and followed for 9 months. The primary outcome is the proportion of hypertension management visits at which guideline-based treatment is provided. In a nested trial conducted within the CDSS, with the patient as the unit of randomization, the LIGHT-ACD trial, patients are randomized to receive different initial mono- or dual-antihypertensive therapy. The primary outcome of the LIGHT-ACD trial is the changes in blood pressure. DISCUSSION: The LIGHT trial will provide evidence on the effectiveness of a CDSS for improving guideline adherence for hypertension management in primary care in China. The nested trial, the LIGHT-ACD trial, will provide data on the effect of different initial antihypertensive regimens for blood pressure management in this setting. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov, identifier: LIGHT (NCT03636334) and LIGHT-ACD (NCT03587103). Registered on 3 July 2018.

Effects of aspirin on dementia and cognitive function in diabetic patients: the ASCEND trial.

AIMS: Aspirin is widely used in cardiovascular disease prevention but is also associated with an increased risk of bleeding. The net effect of aspirin on dementia and cognitive impairment is uncertain. METHODS AND RESULTS: In the ASCEND trial, 15 480 people from the UK with diabetes and no history of cardiovascular disease were randomized to aspirin 100 mg daily or matching placebo for a mean of 7.4 years. The 15 427 ASCEND participants with no recorded dementia prior to baseline were included in this cognitive study with a primary pre-specified outcome of 'broad dementia', comprising dementia, cognitive impairment, or confusion. This was ascertained through participant, carer, or general practitioner report or hospital admission diagnosis, by 31 March 2019 (∼2 years beyond the scheduled treatment period). The broad dementia outcome occurred in a similar percentage of participants in the aspirin group and placebo group: 548 participants (7.1%) vs. 598 (7.8%), rate ratio 0.91 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.81-1.02]. Thus, the CI excluded proportional hazards of >2% and proportional benefits of >19%. CONCLUSION: Aspirin does not have a large proportional effect on the risk of dementia. Trials or meta-analyses with larger total numbers of incident dementia cases to increase statistical power are needed to assess whether any modest proportional 10-15% benefits of 5-7 years of aspirin use on dementia exist. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials number, ISRCTN60635500; ClinicalTrials.gov number: NCT00135226.

Performance of the UK Prospective Diabetes Study Outcomes Model 2 in a Contemporary UK Type 2 Diabetes Trial Cohort.

OBJECTIVES: The UK Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) Outcomes Model (UKPDS-OM) developed using 30-year (1977-2007) data from the UKPDS is widely used for health outcomes' projections and economic evaluations of therapies for patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D). Nevertheless, its reliability for contemporary UK T2D populations is unclear. We assessed the performance of version 2 of the model (UKPDS-OM2) using data from A Study of Cardiovascular Events in Diabetes (ASCEND), which followed participants with diabetes in the UK between 2005 and 2017. METHODS: The UKPDS-OM2 was used to predict the occurrence of myocardial infarction (MI), other ischemic heart disease, stroke, cardiovascular (CV) death, and other death among the 14 569 participants with T2D in ASCEND, all without previous CV disease at study entry. Calibration (comparison of predicted and observed year-on-year cumulative incidence over 10 years) and discrimination (c-statistics) of the model were assessed for each endpoint. The percentage error in event rates at year 7 (mean duration of follow up) was used to quantify model bias. RESULTS: The UKPDS-OM2 substantially overpredicted MI, stroke, CV death, and other death over the 10-year follow-up period (by 149%, 42%, 269%, and 52%, respectively, at year 7). Discrimination of the model for MI and other ischemic heart disease (c-statistics 0.58 and 0.60, respectively) was poorer than that for other outcomes (c-statistics ranging from 0.66 to 0.72). CONCLUSIONS: The UKPDS-OM2 substantially overpredicted risks of key CV outcomes and death in people with T2D in ASCEND. Appropriate adjustments or a new model may be required for assessments of long-term effects of treatments in contemporary T2D cohorts.

Decrements in health-related quality of life associated with adverse events in people with diabetes.

AIM: To estimate the decrements in health-related quality of life (QoL) associated with a range of adverse events to inform assessments of the effects of diabetes treatments on QoL in contemporary clinical practice. METHODS: Participants' QoL utility measures were derived from the five-level EuroQoL five-dimensional (EQ-5D-5L) questionnaires completed by 11 683 ASCEND participants (76% of 15 480 recruited). EQ-5D utility decrements associated with cardiovascular (myocardial infarction, coronary revascularization, transient ischaemic attack [TIA], ischaemic stroke, heart failure), bleeding (gastrointestinal [GI] bleed, intracranial haemorrhage, other major bleed), cancer (GI tract cancer, non-GI tract cancer), and microvascular events (end-stage renal disease [ESRD], amputation) were estimated using a linear regression model following adjustment for participants' sociodemographic and clinical risk factors. RESULTS: Amputation was associated with the largest EQ-5D utility decrement (-0.206), followed by heart failure (-0.185), intracranial haemorrhage (-0.164), GI bleed (-0.091), other major bleed (-0.096), ischaemic stroke (-0.061), TIA (-0.057), and non-GI tract cancer (-0.026). We were unable to detect decrements in EQ-5D utility associated with myocardial infarction, coronary revascularization, GI tract cancer, or ESRD. EQ-5D utility was lower at older age, independent of other factors. CONCLUSION: These estimated decrements in QoL associated with cardiovascular, bleeding, cancer, and other adverse events can inform assessments of the overall value of treatments in patients with diabetes.

Comparison of the Accuracy and Completeness of Records of Serious Vascular Events in Routinely Collected Data vs Clinical Trial-Adjudicated Direct Follow-up Data in the UK: Secondary Analysis of the ASCEND Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: Routinely collected data could substantially decrease the cost of conducting trials. Objective: To assess the accuracy and completeness of UK routine data for ascertaining serious vascular events (SVEs) compared with adjudicated follow-up data. Design, Setting, and Participants: This was a secondary analysis of a randomized clinical trial. From June 24, 2005, to July 28, 2011, the ASCEND (A Study of Cardiovascular Events in Diabetes) primary prevention trial used mail-based methods to randomize people with diabetes without evidence of atherosclerotic vascular disease using a 2 × 2 factorial design to aspirin and/or ω-fatty acids vs matching placebo in the UK. Direct participant mail-based follow-up was the main source of outcome data, with more than 90% of the primary outcome events undergoing adjudication. Follow-up was completed on July 31, 2017. In parallel, more than 99% of participants were linked to routinely collected hospital admission and death registry data (ie, routine data), enabling post hoc randomized comparisons of different sources of outcome data (conducted from September 1, 2018, to October 1, 2021). Interventions: Random allocation to 100 mg of aspirin once daily vs matching placebo and separately to 1 g of ω-3 fatty acids once daily vs placebo. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome consisted of SVEs (a composite of nonfatal myocardial infarction, ischemic stroke, transient ischemic attack [TIA], or vascular death, excluding hemorrhagic stroke). Results: A total of 15 480 participants were randomized (mean [SD] age, 63 [9] years; 9684 [62.6%] men) and followed up for a mean (SD) of 7.4 (1.8) years. For SVEs, agreement between adjudicated direct follow-up and routine data sources was strong (1401 vs 1127 events; κ = 0.78 [95% CI, 0.76-0.80]; sensitivity, 72.0% [95% CI, 69.7%-74.4%]; specificity, 99.2% [95% CI, 99.0%-99.3%]), and sensitivity improved for SVEs excluding transient ischemic attack (1129 vs 1026 events; sensitivity, 80.6% [95% CI, 78.3%-82.9%]). Rate ratios for the aspirin-randomized comparison for adjudicated direct follow-up vs follow-up solely through routine data alone were 0.88 (95% CI, 0.79-0.97) vs 0.91 (95% CI, 0.81-1.02) for the primary outcome and 0.92 (95% CI, 0.82-1.03) vs 0.91 (95% CI, 0.80-1.02) for SVEs excluding TIA. Results were similar for the ω-3 fatty acid comparison, and adjudication did not seem to markedly change rate ratios. Conclusions and Relevance: Post hoc analyses of the ASCEND trial suggest that routinely collected hospital admission and death registry data in the UK could be used as the sole method of follow-up for myocardial infarction, ischemic stroke resulting in hospitalization, vascular death, and arterial revascularization in primary prevention cardiovascular trials, without the need for verification by clinical adjudication.